What is the scope of tourism

Recovery check # 2: Domestic tourism recovers much earlier than international tourism

23.04.2020

The new recovery check # 2 of the Federal Tourism Competence Center expects domestic tourism in Germany to recover much earlier than international travel. The recovery cycles in outgoing and incoming appear significantly longer.

According to the current status, the German tourism industry can count on easing to a significant extent at the beginning of May at the earliest, but more likely not until June 2020. Until then, sales in tourism can be expected to be low, which can, however, already increase significantly in the phase of tourism easing.

In the second run of the recovery check, a differentiated assessment of the recovery of tourism sectors is made possible. For this purpose, the expected booked sales volume was determined in comparison to the base period 2019 and examined within the two types of tourism, domestic tourism and international tourism.


 Three scenarios, four phases: In recovery check # 2, we consider recovery periods and potential drops in sales in national and international tourism.

According to the current status, the German tourism industry can count on easing to a significant extent at the earliest at the beginning of May, but more likely not until June 2020. Until then, only small sales will be recorded in tourism, which can, however, already increase significantly in the phase of tourist relaxation.

Realistically speaking, the phase of relaxation in domestic tourism could already be completed in August of this year, so that larger events and a significant reduction in the relevant travel restrictions will then be possible. On a global level, we currently do not expect the situation to ease significantly for the majority of the target areas until the Easter holidays 2021.

The competence center currently believes that domestic tourism can normalize at Easter 2021. In the next calendar year, 89 percent of 2019 sales could be achieved. Realistically speaking, international travel will not normalize until January 2022. Sales at the level of the base year 2019 are not expected here until spring 2023.

Slump in sales: In the realistic scenario, we expect sales losses of around 41% in 2020 or even 71% internationally compared to the previous year. In domestic tourism, however, sales at the level of 2019 can be achieved as early as the summer of 2022.

 

Realistic scenario: the recovery of domestic tourism will be complete by mid-2021. International tourism takes almost two years longer.

The recovery check is based on a complex analysis method and is continuously updated. The values ​​were determined on the basis of the results of the recovery check # 1 as well as the latest political developments, publications and analyzes, and the assessments of around 500 industry experts were taken into account.

The results of our recovery check serve politicians and the tourism industry as a basis for sketching out periods of time that require differentiated action. The investigation within the two types of tourism, domestic tourism and international tourism, enables a differentiated assessment of tourism sectors, as they have different business models, target groups and security risks.

 

 Download methodology and summary results (pdf, 162 KB)

The next issue of the recovery check will appear soon.

Current information about Corona and tourism is available daily on our Corona Navigator.

 

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